TechnologyPRE-MARKET

Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1520 by December 31?

Indicative Probability

Pre-market

No: 50%

Yes: 50%

Probability Chart (30 days)

Volume:$0

Resolution Source:Polymarket (Signal API / Gamma)

Closes:2026年12月31日 00:002026年12月31日 00:00

Countdown (event):2026年12月31日 00:00

Status:Pre-market phase

About this market

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".

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PRE-MARKET

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